The pandemic has sped up changes in our lives. I get this feeling from reading this article by Thomas Friedman, in which the famous author stated that “Covid-19 was supposed to be China’s Chernobyl. It’s ended up looking more like the West’s Waterloo.”
Some brute facts seem to back it up, including the number of domestic travelers in China over the national holidays; that less than 4% of US firms are willing to leave China, and that China is testing 9 million people in five days in the coastal city of Qingdao, after 12 locally-transmitted coronavirus cases were reported there.
How Much Do Regimes Matter?
The following words from Friedman are thought provoking: “Authoritarian regimes always have an advantage at the start of wars: They can just order their societies to do things from the top down. But in the long run, America always triumphed because, while we’re usually unprepared for war and start slowly, we always climb the learning curve fast and come together for the long haul — from the bottom up. Until now. This time we never pulled together to rise to the covid challenge.”
Friedman of course is not promoting authoritarian regime here. Shortly after the “Chernobyl – Waterloo” metaphor he quickly pointed out “It’s not because democracies are incapable of governing in a pandemic — South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand have done much better than us.”
A laundry list of reasons for US failure this time has been offered: “In part, it’s because we have a uniquely individualistic culture, a highly fragmented local-state-federal power-sharing system, a frail public health system, a divided body politic, a Republican Party whose business model has long been to cripple Washington, and so many people getting their news from social networks that amplify conspiracy theories and destroy truth and trust.” On top of that, Friedman blames Trump for dividing the country as well as for providing misinformation to the public.
Pandemic Differs from Human Wars
Before commenting on the above reasons, I want to point out one thing that can explain why Americans failed this time (at least so far). The good news is that the pandemic did not prove Americans are generally weaker than before, while the bad news is that Americans have revealed their vulnerability in fighting natural enemies, at least some natural enemies like the covid-19.
The point I am making is that covid-19 started off as a strictly natural shock that saw no difference between democratic and authoritarian regimes. While the US has never been completely defeated in fighting humans, it has not been tested by pure natural disasters that are not local (e.g., flood, fire, earthquake, volcano, hurricane) but transmissible through humans all over the world.
When Friedman talked about Americans defeating all the authoritarians since the World War I, he was right that the US had shown a disadvantage of being slow starters but ended up having the last laugh. It is also true that having a lousy president like Donald Trump certainly makes things at lease ten times worse.
Mindset Resources Matter
We can (and should) go deeper by looking at the advantages and resources that helped the US in human fighting but not in fighting covid-19. Fighting humans is largely a game based on material resources. The US possessed more material resources than its enemies (Germany, Japan, Soviet Union) back then. Of course, the other factor is human determination in fight.
In fighting a pandemic, however, material resources still help (see later) but “mindset resources” matter even more. By mindset resources I mean three things: cognitive, emotional and behavioral patters. Unfortunately none of the three has worked in favor of the US this time, which is why Friedman sees no sign of Americans picking up the spirit and speed in fighting the virus.
The three dimensional weakness of Americans have much to do with president Trump, who by providing misinformation and inspiring social divide for his personal gains, is entirely guilty as charged by media and should be legally prosecuted after he is voted out of the presidency.
I want to point out that the cognitive weakness has something to do with the fact that we are fighting an enemy that is invisible, unlike previous fights with other humans. We should just trust science to tell us what to do, as not doing so is dangerous. In a society that values individual choices, it is easy for some people to put personal choices above science, but they are mistaking! We all should make choices based on science, not against it.
Sometimes it is tricky to follow the science, because some scientists can be wrong in their opinions. A perfect example is the so called “Great Barrington Declaration”, signed by more than 7,000 scientists and medics worldwide, that essentially calls for a selective, focused lockdown for people above certain ages and lets younger folks do their work as normal. It is good that the UK government has rejected the idea. The truth is, do not equate science with job titles, science is first and foremost about scientific discoveries of facts. Best of all, put on a hat of scientist yourself and do a little search by yourself and then decide what your best choices are. The worst thing is to refuse or reject science altogether and just go on with your own innate preferences.
Speaking of the emotional weakness, the biggest problem is that people consciously or unconsciously link the virus with politics — they really should not be doing that, given that virus knows no politics.
Behavioral Patterns Are the Achilles’ Heel
Not everyone is against wearing masks, although you see some people simply do not use them. The difference is caused by behavioral patterns, which is subject to impacts from historical and cultural habits. I want to compare China and US to get the point across.
Wearing masks is nothing new in China, where ordinary people normally do during the winter cold. Masks are strictly for healthcare professionals in the US however, just like (I think) only Chinese girls would hold an umbrella in the summer in the US.
Don’t underestimate pre-pandemic behavioral differences, because they determine or directly impact behaviors during the pandemic.
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Let $B_b, B_a$ be the behavioral patterns before and after the pandemic, respectively, then for groups of people, $C$ (for conformers) and $R$ (for rebels), their pandemic behaviors are a direct function of pre-pandemic behavioral patterns: $B_a=f(B_b – B_d)$, where $B_d$ stands for the demanded behaviors by authorities during pandemic.
In the US, it is much easier to ask people to wash their hands frequently than to wear a mask. Not that it is impossible, but it will take time to see more people complying.
An Authoritarian Regime May Serve Its Base
What about democratic versus authoritarian regimes? I want to play down the ideology and politics but to call attention to serving the social bases. One way to call it would be social governance.
In China, from members of the party politburo to governors, mayors and even community leaders, all have been mobilized and motivated to stop the virus from spreading. It is easy to call this top down mobilization something related to nature of authoritarian regime. The truth is more nuanced because to a large extent, the seemingly top down approach is actually responding to the calls from the bottom up. That is, the majority in the society wanted their leaders to take the virus seriously and lead them through the hard time. Unfortunately looking from outside, only the government actions are visible, which can be judged unfavorably. On the other hand, it is also unfortunate that unless the top leaders initiated actions, appeals from the bottom, alone by themselves, will be more likely to be buried than heard.
US Will Still Win in the End
Having talked so much about mindset resources, it is still true that the US has more material resources than any other country in the world. In the end, US will come up with vaccines, better way of testing, better way of treating patients. This is more likely the winning strategy for this great country. No matter how much better or worse other countries do differently, the Americans are unlikely to copy and paste their ways of success or failure, simply because doing so would cost more than following its own trajectory. In other words, US is close to impossible to launch a nation wide lockdown like China did. Instead, while the Chinese succeeded in stopping the spread of virus, US is more likely to beat the virus by treating it after the spread. I am positive on this!