- China’s Xi, Jinping has issued the most straightforward and harshest warning against the Western world not to mess up with China and Chinese — at the same time when Trump and Biden held the final presidential debate
- The most likely place for a military clash in the near term is the Taiwan strait
- We should try everything possible to prevent a war from happening
Many Americans cannot tell “Taiwan” and “Thailand” apart, and most have not been remotely aware of the danger of a war that is near us. Well, “near” refers not to a geographic sense but in terms of time. No, I am not talking about the skirmish between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and no, the war is less likely to break out between China and US (although that would only take a few miscalculations from either side), but between the mainland and Taiwan.
The most direct sign of such a war came when China held a large public ceremony last Friday in Beijing to memorize the Korean War (China called it “The War resisting US aggression in Korea” or 抗美援朝) that occurred exactly 70 years ago. That ceremony could have been just a routine formality that nobody really cares, like it has been for the decades since the war broke out in the 1950. However, this year is definitely different, and you can easily sense that Xi, Jinping wanted to assign new meanings to the historical event, the only open, formal and all out military conflict between US and China ever since the Chinese Communist Party took over the mainland. I say the “only war” because although many Chinese military personnel were in Viet Nam to help the Vietnamese fight the US, those people were sent there secretly under disguises.
China has grown increasingly impatient over the lengthy challenge of “Unifying the country” by taking in Taiwan. The Chinese leaders have made it clear to the world that they did not want to wait forever for a peaceful and political solution for Taiwan. This sense of urgency has been supported by the growingly weaker willingness of the people in Taiwan to be a part of the mainland. Beijing recognized that the longer it waits, its distances (mental, political, legal, economic) from Taiwan will only get larger. From Beijing’s perspective, the best time to launch a military attack against Taiwan is today, not tomorrow and never the day after tomorrow! This is why the danger of war is much closer than we recognized.
Another factor is that although the ordinary Chinese do not know, their leaders know too well how isolated the country stands now and how negative its international image is. This may actually provoke a sense of “I don’t care” mentality, to the extent that an aggressive move could not make thing any worse than it is now. In other words, China may lose the incentive to act as a “responsible entity” now.
The possible scenarios have been described here. What I want to point out here are the followings:
- Do not underestimate the determination of Beijing for fighting a limited war even directly with US
- Do not underestimate the capability of the Chinese Liberation Army (PLS). The US may have won the conflicts in the world, but is likely to be defeated by PLA in a war near the doorsteps of China. In fact, China is likely the only country in the world today that is willing and able to challenge US military forces
- We should do everything possible to prevent military conflict involving US and China for one and only one reason: Preventing the US-China is good for both countries and also for the entire world.