Forget about winning the presidency, the next — and bigger — challenge for Biden and his administration is to govern, or better yet, to lead the country forward. We can say this because it has been increasingly clear that Trump is unlikely to win the legal battle, just like he did not win the election battle. By the way, next time when you meet the private citizen Donald Trump on the street — if he is not in jail — you can show him the hand gesture (extending the right thumb and index fingers, leaving the other fingers closed to create the letter “L”). That would be a surefire way to provoke him. Yes, it is mean, although still civilized, but who is meaner than himself?
Reasons For Being Pessimistic
Some believe the nation is legally structured to be separated as a federation with divisive political powers. In the author’s own words “even if Biden may hope to unify the country, our constitutional structure works against this aim.”
Another author had a similar view also from the historical perspective: “Americans never did agree on fundamental issues, and North America is really comprised of 11 distinct cultural regions which battle for political and social supremacy constantly.”
Historical roots aside, these authors seem to miss the point that we are debating now. If the design for divisive and balanced power is the only thing that matters, this country would have had the same degree of divide all the time. In reality, nobody can deny that America is currently more divided than ever, even to the point of facing a small constitutional crisis in power transition of the highest executive office of the presidency. Peaceful and smooth power transition is one of the defining advantages or trademarks of democracy, and if the US cannot do it, we drop ourselves down to the same level as all authoritarian or third world regimes.
Unlike the historically oriented views, others are more concerned about the reality we are facing today. This article is not the best focused because it jumps between media and parties, nonetheless I will quote the key words I think the author is trying to say: “The Republican Party’s spurning of Biden’s outstretched hand is the latest example of how the GOP uses power—by rejecting established norms when it’s politically expedient and wielding them like a war hammer at their enemies when convenient. That Democrats and their allies have not adapted to this new reality continues to be worrisome.” In other words, GOP is to be blamed for the nation’s divide.
The Right Question To Ask
While I am sympathetic with the last author, in fact I have myself accused Trump for being the worst divisive leader, the real question is this: Will the unifying agents (think of Biden) or the divisive agents (think of Trump) be better paid? After all, Trump has been Trump in the last four years mostly because in his wicked mind being the divisive leader pays better than otherwise. This reckoning is not completely wrong. As pointed out by many, Obama won the presidency but failed to unify the nation, despite his deep-seated goodwill at the time of his inauguration.
Economists would argue that social and economic rewards are the only thing matter: Whenever the unifiers receive better rewards (expected or real), the country will be more united; on the other hand, whenever the dividers expect better payoff, the country will be hopelessly divisive.
That thinking of course is too naive and incomplete. Humans are not machines or dogs that only chase after external rewards but have internal or innate preferences. Certain things that Trump will do without thinking twice (like sleeping with Stormy Danial and paying for keeping her mouth shut afterward), Biden probably would never do.
Having said that, humans are not the most stable species in keeping pace with their preferences and behavioral patterns, at least not all humans are. Part of the reason is that there are conflicting preferences and causes. Other things equal, we do expect social rewards to play a big role, especially when the collective competitions (e.g., between the two political parties) are fierce. We have actually witnessed how competition drives both parties toward utilizing all means, because winning the game has become the highest cause and going through a compromised route seems to be something tolerable or even justifiable.
Trump WILL BE the worst that America has to offer, but generally speaking during heated competition all parties, in our case both GOP and Dems, may be guilty in using some dirty tricks against each other. This is why we still need Fox News, just like we need both New York Times and New York Post, to keep the balance of exposures.
Reasons for Being Cautiously Optimistic
The first reason we should remain optimistic is that we are not seeking a goal that is too high to reach. As the president elect, Biden had to — and should — say noble words like “end the era of demonization”, even though everyone knows there will be demonization from today onwards. Biden also had to pledge to unify rather than to divide the nation, simply because leaders should deliver hopes. But keep in mind that unifying is a relative process more than the end status. A unified status is even hard to define, because different people desire different degrees of unification. Improvements in unification however are visible even with our naked eyes.
Good examples include but not limited to Americans going from enemies to non-enemies (not necessarily close friends); or during the next election all candidates concede or honor the result when the counting is over; or who knows, maybe in the future America will have more parties to choose from. More diversified choices help mitigate the heat of competition, making the race less likely to be “black versus white”, “day or night”, “left versus right” or “red vs blue”. That said, if we draw an analogy between sports and politics, it would be hard for Americans to sincerely embrace a three party race, simply because that is not how sports are played out.
Secondly, even this time — the worst in American history — it is clear that the dispute will be settled in the courts rather than on the streets (well, for the most decisive part it is not determined on the streets anyway). Even more importantly and positively, Chief Justice John Roberts and Kavanaugh both had a tone in favor of keeping the Obamacare. Based what ACB had said during the nomination hearing, I believe she should hold the same opinion. Like I pointed out earlier, the legal principle of severability will guide the high court to make the most thoughtful and least biased decisions, which may have little to do with who nominated the judges or justices. In addition, the latest poll shows that almost 80% of Americans consider Joe Biden the winner of the US presidential election, including many Republicans. Do not overlook this result, as it separates America from many if not most developing countries, where institutions there have generally been trust by few!
Finally and most importantly, the Biden administration still has a secret weapon for getting the job done: Grow the economy! If you look at the election map, it is clear that the Dems are generally popular among states with not just more prospective economies but also more advanced economies — those that determine or shape the future of this country and the world. This is ultimately I prefer the Democrats: They tend to stay with the new economy of tomorrow (see this interesting piece on how California went from a deep red to deep blue state). GOP has been walking like a stumbling old man, relying on a few old tricks from their tool box, like tax cuts and budget cuts. Making government smaller and smaller is not right, because as the economy pie growing in size, the size of government should keep up so it can do a better job serving the whole society, including helping those unemployed move to new sectors. The point is, when income grows, people’s demand for better social environment also grows to match the higher income. And despite the best developed NGOs in this country, nobody is better equipped than governments, especially the federal government, for serving the entire nation.
There is another reason for government to keep a stable size: In the US it is an open secret that fewer talented people would work in the public sector, which means the government must keep a sufficient budget to compensate the lower efficiency for public workers in comparison with the private workers or workers in the private sector. I want to call it “Public Efficiency Compensation Budget” for lacking a better term. For example, a job that requires one private employee to finish may have to use 1.5 in the public sector.
The lower efficiency of public sector is for real and I myself can serve as a good example: In the 2018 tax year, the IRS returned my tax files and instead of sending me a refund check, Uncle Sam asked me to pay additional amount. I disputed with evidences and told them where they went wrong (a ridiculous error that even a fifth grader should not make). Luckily, they admitted the error and I indeed received my refund. This is at the federal level, and you would assume they are more competent than those working for the state or local governments!
Similarly, the pandemic has been more than 10 months and yet I have yet to receive a penny from the IRS for the pandemic relief check.
To be fair to the workers in the public sector, their jobs are tougher as they have no choice but must deal with the most diversified people in their daily activities. Their goal is not to make money or making financial returns as much as possible — unlike the private sector — but to serve people for their needs and wants. All these added together means efficiency has to be measured differently. At the end of the day, however, it requires more financial resources to serve people.
Back to the Democrats, I think they need to lead the whole economy by leveraging the advanced sectors (e.g., those mostly located in California), making them the growth engines and then spread the growth to the rest of the country. Trump has made himself an enemy of the high tech industries, which again shows how little he understood economy.
Frequently I found myself sighing for this country: It is so rich in resources and yet so poor in leadership to leverage the resources. The Biden administration has the promise to change that. Unifying the nation, just like any other tasks, requires social and economic resources. Perhaps the best way to unify is to make people pre-occupied in economic, value adding activities. Putting more money in people’s pockets from jobs — of which some are meaningful and engaging while others are boring but still useful — could be the fastest route to heal this great country.