Most see the Biden Administration’s China policy deviating little from Trump’s, due to a bipartisan view of China as the largest threat both now and in the future. Most also predict an improved relationship between US and its allies. While the cross-Atlantic relations do matter, it is the relations across the Pacific that should be the top priority from day one, both because of its bigger economic consequences and also of its more and bigger uncertainties. The recent RCEP treaty helps remind us of that. In fact, the tightening of the US-EU allies has to be placed against the backdrop of the shared perception of the China rivalry.
New Thinkings Are Required
A new way of thinking toward China should come before any specific policies. Unlike the latter, the former or the strategic thinking stays longer and is more stable. Having a grant strategy would also sets the new administration apart from Trump, who has acted like a used-car salesman, constantly switching prices and cutting corners for quick and short term gains from all other countries. I heard from the news this morning of an interview with John Bolton, former National Security Advisor, and I agree with Bolton that there is no “Trumpism,” because the guy has no principle nor visions at all, or better yet, his only principle is to gain for himself. To call it Trumpism is giving him too much credit.
Having Patience For China
“Patience” seems to be the least expected word in international relations, even more strange for a China strategy, but it is what America needs the most at this time, both in dealing with China and also with the rest of the world, both in the short and long runs. Best of all, it will benefit both America and China.
Having patience basically means not to expect or to plan on changing the world overnight. It is a sober and realistic strategy more than anything else.
The need for patience is driven by forces both in the US and China. Domestically, although there is a bipartisan view against China, our economy faces revitalizing challenges after the pandemic, and our society faces unprecedented chasm that has to be healed. The US must do a good “homework” before setting out aggressively against others.
Now consider China. It has been and will be the largest competitor the US has ever faced. Its economy is much bigger than the former Soviet Union, and has deeply entrenched in the global economy — not hiding behind the iron curtain. It makes little sense — and unlikely to succeed — to follow the same strategy as the US used during the cold war era.
Why The US Is More Prone to Err in Low Patience
One thing the two countries share is that neither is likely to be defeated from outside. It would have to be internal conflicts or internal causes to collapse either country.
Having said that, the US is more prone to err in low patience than China does, due to its past successes in changing others and also to its means of doing that.
I have found myself often asking this question lately: if we can understand the people who still liked the way Trump handled the pandemic after more than a quarter million of deaths, if we can allow cult religions like the Scientology to exist, if we can tolerate Trump who shows no sign of cooperating for presidential transition three weeks after the election, and finally if we can let go of guys like Steven Bannon talking of beheading Dr. Fauci and Rudy Giuliani for cutting some Dems heads off, why can’t we have patience with China?
After all, China is far away and has not threatened to trash the US (at least not right now, but based on its attitude toward others with smaller GDPs, even including UK and Australia with much higher per capita GDP, China has failed to convince the world that it is not a bully when it is capable). Instead, it even claimed repeatedly that it has no intention to take over the US leadership — although we should take it with a grain of salt for the same reason that China is accusing the US for bullying others while it is doing its own share of bullying whenever someone has criticized it.
In short, China is not an immediate threat especially in terms of innovations “from ‘0’ to ‘1’” (meaning new to the world innovations based on basic or fundamental science), not “from ‘1’ to ’10′” (meaning inspired by the original innovations of others and set out to perfect them). Later in another blog I will show that it is highly likely that China will never beat the US in creativity.
Patience Brings Incremental and Efficient Changes
Having patience means we believe not in dramatic but rather incremental changes in China and also in US-China relations. Patience results not so much from subjective intents but more from objective constraints. As I said earlier, since we or anyone else in the world cannot change China overnight, our only option is to move China forward one small step at a time.
Unlike dramatic changes (e.g., regime changes or the “Color Revolutions” like Secretary of State Pompeo has effectively promoted for China), incremental changes are unlikely to provoke China or to trigger a sense of being threatened, which in turn leads to an urgency of domestic unity and self-reliance, like the US did for Huawei. It is much easier for China to swallow, especially considering that Chinese hold no historically negative sentiment against the US like they hold against Japan that invaded China and treated Chinese brutally during the WWII with its famous “Clean Field” or “Burn to Ash” strategy (AKA “Kill all, Burn all, Loot all”) in retaliation against the CCP-led “Hundred Regiments Offense” in December 1940. The average Chinese also remembers the US as a good ally during the anti-Japanese war and also that it is the Boxer Indemnity Scholarship from the US that led to the establishment of Tsinghua University, the best college in China today.
More to Come…
This is the first in a series of blogs that I will write. The other principles for dealing with China are Doing American Homework, Knowing the Weaknesses of China, and No beating, no joining.