Biden & Xi, Jinping

This interview of Biden with NYT Thomas Friedman tells us the short term plan for the Biden presidency. It’s a good plan because it shows how determined the President-elect is about making changes in a post-Trump era — as quickly as possible. I specifically liked his strategy to connect the rural Americans that have been left out by the Democrats previously, which explains the huge number of voters for Trump there. By talking about building digital infrastructures to connect the rural areas, Biden shows he is not just saying it when he claimed he would be the president for all Americans. Instead, he actually moves to take that in stride toward those people who did not vote for him.

It is also good to see Biden intending to invest like hell in America, such as the $20 billion to put broadband across the entire country. Interestingly, Biden may have taken a page from China’s playbook when he talked about “large scale government investment in research,” which is good because America should learn from everyone, including its competitors if not enemies. On the other hand, US does not need to copy every move from China, because it has far more resources from the private sector. Instead of pure government investment, it is better to work with the private firms to get the job done.

It is also good to see that Biden has confidence in dealing with Mitch McConnel, based on his past experiences. I would add a warning though that the Republican today is not the same as the Obama time. For one thing, Trump almost certainly will intervene even after he left the White House. This is a president who is least likely to follow the protocol of not getting in the way for the sitting president to do his jobs — unless we are lucky enough to lock him up. Simply put, it will be smart to estimate the possibility of Senate obstruction by a factor of 1.5 times the historical record.

What Biden & Xi Have in Common

I can’t help but compare the two leaders, even though few would put them together as they seem so different from each other. But for one thing, I believe both are patriots of their home country. Both have good personality and are charismatic, although leaders in China are mostly boring as hell. Finally, both are popular at home. For Biden, his favorite rating is currently 55%; of course there is no corresponding number for Xi, as China does not have polling for leaders (China should have it, because it is an important part of democratic citizen training to connect leaders with people). But I am willing to say that Xi, Jinping would beat Biden in a hypothetical election today, because China is not so deeply divided as US is.

The most important thing to compare is leadership capabilities. Both are good and right national leaders in very different ways. Biden is a strong leader in terms of picking up the right and capable lieutenants and subordinates working under him, while Xi excels in visions and strategies that I believe no one else in the Politburo is better than him, certainly not Premier Li, who is supposedly in charge of the economic affairs but ended up following Xi’s visions and guidance.

A Short History of Leadership Changes in China

Xi is the most qualified leader that China has ever had in modern times, starting from Mao, Zedong, the founding father still worshipped by many, if not most, Chinese today like a god. Mao knew very little about — and was also uninterested in — economics. So he led the country through one political movement after another, which is the only thing he was good at.

To a certain extent, Mao messed up China like Trump did for the US, but stayed in power much longer. Also like Trump, Mao still has many cult-like followers and fans today that are totally undeserved, considering the tens of millions of people died under his watch. Mao and Trump would make up a textbook example why democracy is better in damage control for a country.

Deng, Xiaoping was smarter than Mao in economic affairs, although his depth of economic knowledge cannot match Xi. Deng also revealed his true color as a dictator when he ordered troops to enter Tiananmen Square and to open fire at unarmed students in 1989.

Jiang, Zemin, the next leader after Deng, was also not known for economic proficiency, so he shifted all economic responsibility to Premier Zhu. The next leader Hu, Jintao, was the weakest and also most boring, as Obama’s book “The Promised Land” has revealed. Hu can’t even hold a decent meeting with Obama without speaking only from prepared scripts. Hu did not win much respect from Jiang, Zemin, nor from his subordinates.

Then along came Xi, Jinping, a perfect pick for Beijing. First of all, Xi’s father was a senior but purged leader under Mao, Zedong during one of the political campaigns, but was known for his integrity and decency in treating people. Believe it or not, coming from, or raised up by, a “red family” still matters in China. Xi, Jinping was deemed more legitimate to hold power than his predecessors Hu, Jintao and Jiang, Zemin.

Even more importantly, Xi is the one with his own agenda, unlike Hu, Jintao. Xi has taken his job seriously and has come up with some signature ideas like Road and Belt, supply side economic reform and more recently the dual circulation strategy. Internationally, Xi has picked up where Trump has left open and continued to promote globalization and made a promise of becoming carbon neutral by 2060. We have to admit that Xi has played his limited number of “high cards” well, especially when compared with Donald Trump, who have ruined almost all the high cards this country used to have.

China’s Power Transition Challenge

Anyway, the key message from this short history above is that unlike the US, China still faces the unsolved challenge of finding a smooth, stable and safe way to pass the power from one leader to the next. Deng, Xiaoping tried to work it out by naming Hu, Jintao and Jiang, Zemin at the same time, so that Jiang had no control over who came next after him, and also that Jiang cannot over-stay his terms. But this is an unsustainable method or a second-best solution. One obvious problem is that after Deng, Xiaoping, nobody has the absolute authority to name two generations of leaders.

It is against this background that I can fully understand why Xi, Jinping wanted to change the constitution. Up to his time, the leadership terms and power transition had been determined by informal procedures that hinged on individual authority, charisma and preference. He wanted to make it formal to put it on the paper to allow the term flexibility and stability through the constitution. Now, it is likely that Xi made the change to ascertain his own power stability, but it is also clear that he seems to have managed to win the respect of people and also of his coworkers inside the Politburo. In that sense, the change of constitution does the country good.

The Problem of Xi

The “fatal” problem with Xi is that while he leads the country by economically wise moves, politically he moved backward to Mao, Zedong. This is sad because as a visionary leader, he could have pulled off or continued the political reform toward democracy. Instead, he chose to adopt Mao’s means of political control and brainwashing, even though the time is totally different from Mao’s era. The country today remains closed with a secretive mode of governance.

Xi should have followed the example of Chiang, Ching-kuo in Taiwan to loosen up the party’s control. Although educated in the former Soviet Union with a full-fledge dictator father Chiang, Kai-shek, Chiang, Ching-kuo was surprisingly open minded politically. He stopped passing his power to any of his own family members and hand picked a native Taiwanese, Lee, Teng-hui, as his successor. He also formally ended the martial law in Taiwan and gradually opened up to opponents of the Nationalists party to hold meetings or publish political criticism papers. He was also the one allowed the Democratic Progressive Party to officially run in elections as independents.

I wish Xi understood that the only bright and stable future for China is to become a democracy. I can understand his tightening control as a temporary, short term move, but in the long run the communist party should aim to become the greatest party in the human history by cultivating, training, encouraging and leading the mainland to accomplish the smooth transition into a prospective and free country.